Huge Propane Tank Fire in Mission District

If you were outside at all this afternoon (Monday), you knew there was a fire in the Mission...

From SF Gate, "A quickly spreading fire caused by the explosion of a 500-gallon propane filling station destroyed the back half of a boarded-up building today in San Francisco's Mission District. The fire, which started around 3 p.m., forced the closure of South Van Ness Avenue between 15th and 17th streets, as well as two streets parallel to Van Ness Avenue. The 500-gallon tank that exploded was on a truck that was parked in the back of a Hertz rental equipment parking lot. It took 120 firefighters about an hour to extinguish the blaze. The Hertz facility was not damaged."

Far better than the traditional media coverage, however, was a blogger named Quinn with a camera and a Flikr account. There are over 100 closeup images of the whole scene. Pretty interesting how blogs have become so much more fun (and informative) than traditional media!

Noe Valley explores new restaurants

From today's Examiner, "After nearly 20 years with no new restaurants allowed on 24th Street, Noe Valley is poised to allow three more eateries to open in the next five years."

"...after a neighborhood survey two years ago found residents eager for more options, [Friends of Noe Valley] changed its tune and now is advocating three more full-service restaurants with liquor licenses over the next five years. Supervisor Bevan Dufty recently introduced a zoning amendment to that effect, which is expected to pass in the next month or so."

Yahoo is hunting for space to put thousands of planned new workers

As the economy ramps back up again post-dot com, Yahoo! is expanding its offices around the Bay Area including a new 200,000 square foot office in San Francisco, according to the San Francisco Business Times.

"Yahoo Inc. is on the prowl for what commercial real estate industry sources say could be as much as a million square feet of new office space in the Bay Area. That would be enough space for 3,500 to 4,000 employees. The space is for expansion, not consolidation, according to a knowledgeable source, and Yahoo wants to occupy the space soon. At the end of last year, Yahoo reported having 7,600 employees worldwide."

I'd love to see historical evidence of a housing market that has declined significantly in an expanding, healthy economy... I just can't see it happening...

Concept of putting housing with transit begins to take off

From this week's San Francisco Business Times, "The transit village concept -- building residential and commercial units near transit hubs -- has been around for 15 years. But just four of BART's 43 stations and Emeryville's Amtrak station have completed first-phase projects. The Peninsula is in earlier stages of developing its Caltrain stations."

"Meanwhile a dozen other stations are in the planning stages, including San Francisco's Balboa Park. Fremont, San Leandro, South Hayward and Daly City are also being studied for developments, according to Val Menotti, who heads BART's planning. Phase I developments have been completed at Richmond, Fruitvale, Castro Valley and Hayward. Over the next decade, most major BART and Amtrak stations could have a mixed-use project attached to them, but transit villages are not just relegated to the BART map."

And the best line of the whole article, "Despite the Bay Area's current activity, this region was not an early arrival at the transit-village party." No! Really?!? Why do you think we have such awful traffic and such sprawl everywhere but San Francisco? Why do you think that San Francisco is so much more expensive (with a couple of exceptions, of course)? Because, IMHO, we have the desirable benefit of walkable and transit-friendly neighborhoods. The best example of this is how expensive housing is in Oakland and Berkeley near BART stations. People often move out of the city on the condition that they can be within walking distance of a BART station which will bring them back to their job (or their social scene) in the city.

Let's hope that this idea actually makes it to reality. If San Francisco can't get their housing act together, let's hope that neighboring locales can provide viable (and affordable!) ways for people to stay in the region.

Growth Factor - from 7x7 - Nov 2005

Unfortunately, there's no online component to this article, but I feel it's worth mentioning... The newest issue of 7x7 Magazine (Nov 2005) has a great article on urban planning and more specifically on Rincon/South Beach.

If you have a chance to pick this one up (or just stop by a bookstore and read it), the article is on page 128.

The article is a Q&A with a group of four guys who work in urban planning, non-profit architecture, the planning department, and the redevelopment agency.

I have a personal fascination with the idea of urban planning, and I really like how these guys have come together to attempt to create a more liveable city. The supervisors can fight all day long about whether stuff gets built or not, but once it gets approved, these guys have the right ideas about how it should look, from wide sidewalks (a la Duboce Triangle), to narrow buildings, small retail spaces, attractive street-level appearance, etc.

There will continue to be a debate about how much housing gets built, but if this vision gets adopted, I think San Francisco would be proud of the outcome ten years from now...

Watermark Announces Sale of Affordable Units

There's a small ad in today's Chronicle Real Estate section (pg. K9) that announces the upcoming lottery and sale of the Watermark's affordable housing units.

Since there's no online version of this, I'm just copying the information here:

An exciting home ownership opportunity is being offered in San Francisco's South Beach neighborhood. Available home types include one to three bedroom floor plans that range from approx. 751 to 1,237 square feet.

Come to a meeting to learn about the selection process and eligibility requirements, and to receive and application, description of the homes and pricing. All applications must be submitted by 5:00 pm PST on Friday, December 2nd, 2005 in order to be included in a lottery to determine which of the eligible applicants will be offered an opportunity to purchase an affordable home.

MEETINGS ARE SCHEDULED FOR:
Tuesday, November 8th, 2005 at 6:30pm
Thursday, November 10th, 2005 at 6:30pm

Both meetings will be held at Yerba Buena Center for the Performing Arts, located 701 Mission Street at 3rd.

To be eligible for the lottery process, your household must qualify under the Moderate Income designations, which are based on your household's total annual income and number of occupants. The chart below lists maximum annual household income:

Size of household / Maximum for "Moderate Income" units
1 / $66,500
2 / $76,000
3 / $85,500
4 / $95,000

These affordable condominium units have resale controls. Home prices are based on Area Median Income (AMI) in combination with current interest rates. Prices, terms, and availability are subject to change without notice. If, based on disability, you need changes in the way we communicate with you, please contact us at 415-371-1608. Such changes can include requests for notices or applications in large print or a request to receive an application by mail. In addition, we can be reached through the California Relay Service at 1-800-735-2929 for those with a hearing impairment.

For those that saw the lottery that happened a couple of weeks ago at the Beacon, you know that they had 4300 applicants for only 20 units. If you're interested, you should find out everything you need to know about the Mayor's Office of Housing and their restrictions.

Housing market shows few signs of slacking off

From the New York Times, and featured in today's Chronicle, "The housing boom in the United States has survived 11 rate increases by the Federal Reserve, and lately, it has faced increasing jawboning from Fed officials who warn bankers not to ease lending standards too far and caution homeowners that, as Fed Governor Donald Kohn said last week, "a substantial slowing in the pace of house-price appreciation seems inevitable."

"Indeed, as the current boom shows, the Fed has some trouble even slowing a boom. Long-term interest rates have not risen with the short-term rates the Fed does control, and the financial system has responded with creative mortgages that let home buyers hold down monthly payments even as the purchase price rises."

"With the Fed worried about speculative excesses in housing, it would dearly love to slow the boom without bringing on a bust reminiscent of the old days. Builders know what the Fed is saying, but so far, they believe that customers will keep lining up to buy whatever they build."

Mortgage deduction safe, for now?

From SF Gate, "Is there really any chance that Congress could take away mortgage interest and state and local property and income tax deductions from homeowners? A presidentially appointed bipartisan commission is expected to urge precisely that on Tuesday, when it delivers its final report to the Bush administration."

"The mortgage interest deduction -- which allows write-offs on first and second loan amounts up to $1.1 million -- would be scrapped and replaced with a 15 percent credit on sharply limited mortgage amounts. Deductions for state and local property and income taxes would be eliminated. The 15 percent credit would be for only mortgages up to a $300,000-$350,000 ceiling. Interest on home equity loans no longer would be tax deductible."

"But let's get real here: Nobody seriously believes that the president or Congress -- all elected politicians -- would do anything to reduce tax benefits for their largest and most potent constituency, right? Isn't the mortgage interest deduction sacrosanct, politically untouchable, carved in marble on Capitol Hill? Ditto for write-offs of local property taxes and income taxes?"

"Can it become law? Not in an election year. Could some of it find its way into law someday, as the country grapples with budget deficits, war expenses and disaster relief reconstruction? That's where the odds start looking slightly better."

Why you should never ask for a property tax reassessment

NOTE: See a more recent article I posted about why this posting below is not accurate...

--

From this week's Guardian comes an article that gives me the opportunity to point out something that you as a homeowner should NEVER do.

"You see, [George] Sibthorp makes a living getting people a break on their property taxes. He drums up business by stuffing mailboxes with offers to work on a contingency basis until his clients first win back some cash from the tax collector. Judging by public records on tax assessment appeals, Sibthorp has been quite successful."

The basis of this article is that Sibthorp will help you navigate through the city maze to have your property taxes reduced if you feel you have been over-assessed. Especially if you have paid a mint for your house, there may be times when you think that your market value may have diminshed enough to warrant a lower valuation.

I can't over-empahsize this enough: DON'T EVER DO THIS!

You see, years ago some political geniuses created Proposition 13, which locks your property tax rate at the value when you bought your property, with very small (miniscule, really) increases over time. Nobody can touch this valuation, until you ask them to re-assess your property. If you do that ONCE, you drop your Prop 13 rights and they have the right to reassess every year for as long as you own your property.

As a hypothetical example, let's say that you bought your house in Noe Valley in July 1989 for $250,000. In January of 1990 (post-quake) you're feeling like you got fleeced. You're feeling like you deserve a reassessment on your tax basis. So you call up the city (or a service like the one the Guardian describes) and have your property reassessed. They do their research and determine that your house in this post-quake economy is only worth $220,000 now. You feel like a rock star. You just saved your family hundreds of dollars per year, and your tax bill is roughly $2,500/year.

Fast-forward to 2005. That same home is now worth $1.6 million. Since you gave up your Prop 13 rights for the benefit of reassessment in 1990, they have reassessed your house each and every year and your property taxes are now $17,000/year.

See what I mean?

As a general rule, it's always better to keep the city out of your business anyhow, but in this case, I think you get my point.

More details about the assessment process can be found on the County Assessor's Web Site. There is nothing specific on the site about the reassessment triggering subsequent reassessments, but I have emailed them and will let you know what their official response is.

Foreclosures in Bay Area down 13% to a 14-year low

From the Chronicle today, "Foreclosures in the Bay Area dipped to their lowest level in 14 years during the third quarter. Lenders sent a total of 2,006 default notices to homeowners in the nine-county region during the three months that ended Sept. 30 -- down 13 percent from the year-ago period and 6 percent from the second quarter, the real estate information firm DataQuick reported Thursday."

"Brisk price increases across the Bay Area have helped keep foreclosures at rock-bottom levels, analysts said. As prices rise, even financially strapped borrowers can usually sell their homes at a profit."

"DataQuick found mortgages were least likely to go into default in San Francisco and Santa Barbara counties."

Smaller Home Depot proffered to supes

From the Examiner, "Two days after a proposed Home Depot on Bayshore Boulevard did not get enough support from city leaders, planners for the big-box company are sketching out a store smaller than the 140,000 square feet currently envisioned. “Home Depot has said that they would be amenable to 107,000 [square feet],” Supervisor Bevan Dufty said on Thursday."

"Home Depot spokeswoman Kathryn Gallagher said company representatives started looking at alternatives immediately after Tuesday’s adjournment. “We’re committed to having a store in San Francisco,” she said, noting that for 10 years the Atlanta-based corporation has been trying to settle at one location or another. She said she couldn’t estimate the money already spent, but said millions of dollars would be a reasonable guess."

Who cares how much they spent in the past 10 years? It's obvious that the majority doesn't want Home Depot in San Francisco. HD wouldn't have spent this much money if they didn't feel that they would be able to profit significantly from the addition of the store to San Francisco (only five minutes away from their Colma store and ten minutes from their Emeryville Store). Is anyone dumb enough to think that Home Depot really 'cares' about San Francisco? Do they 'care' about our neighborhoods? About our neighborhood hardware stores that carry property-specific items for our unique, older homes? Do they even care about the Hunter's Point residents they claim to be focusing their jobs on?

Hell no. They care about one thing and one thing only, their shareholders. It's all about marketshare. There are people in San Francisco that don't drive to Colma or Emeryville and they want those dollars.

Are the Supes really fooled by this? This is one time that Chris Daly is allowed to throw a little tantrum (IMHO), but we haven't heard a word out of him. Why does he choose to shut up now? I'm actually surprised he hasn't offered up a site in SOMA with some outrageous fee attached...

Proposal to solve city’s planning maze delayed

From the Examiner, "For the past few months, the Planning Commission has reviewed legislation intended to give residents a strong voice in how their neighborhoods grow while providing builders more certainty and predictability in the development process. On Wednesday, the Board of Supervisors Land Use Committee heard the legislation and continued it until Nov. 16 to incorporate proposed amendments."

"The legislation, called Better Neighborhoods Plus, is intended to improve a process launched in the late 1990s to lay out details of how housing, transportation, parks and stores would fit together, and set specific guidelines for details ranging from building heights to parking."

‘State of The City’ speech outlines hopeful agenda

From the Examiner, "Mayor Gavin Newsom set forth an ambitious plan in his second “State of The City” address Wednesday, calling for creating a new science and technology academy, universal health care access for all city residents, and initiatives to green both San Francisco’s economy and its streets."

And the San Francisco Sentinel has the complete text of the mayor's address, including items on housing and homeownership.

We are also opening doors to home ownership - making it possible for more San Franciscans to realize the dream of owning their own home. Working with Supervisor Elsbernd, a champion of homeownership, we've established Home 15/5, setting a goal to build 15,000 new units of housing over the next 5 years.

It's an ambitious goal - when you consider that in the 1990s housing production was just over 1,000 units annually, or just over 10,000 units for the entire decade.

We have set a goal we can - and must achieve. Over the next 5 years, we will see the construction of more than 3,000 housing units, every year - the highest annual level of housing construction since the City was rebuilt after 1906.

There is quite a bit in his address about housing, covering everything from the building and planning departments to purchase assistance for teachers and civil servants. Check it out!

Plan to charge new building fees close to reality

From today's Examiner, "A proposal to charge $11 million in fees to developers in Visitacion Valley and use the money to fund neighborhood improvements moved a step closer to approval Wednesday. Supervisor Sophie Maxwell gained approval at the Land Use Committee meeting Wednesday for her $4.58-per-square-foot proposal covering thousands of new units planned at Executive Park and the old Schlage Lock site. Similar to this summer’s fees for much pricier Rincon Hill projects downtown, the Visitacion Valley plan would fund not only improvements in the immediate area but in the surrounding neighborhood as well."

As we learned when Chris Daly milked the Rincon Hill developers for extra fees, this cost is passed directly back to the home buyer, raising the price of housing even further.

One cannot argue the need for neighborhood improvements, but Daly has set a dangerous precedent which will only serve to make housing less affordable for his constituents.

Neighborhood businesses honored

From today's Examiner, "Tonight, some of San Francisco’s neighborhood businesses will learn just how important they are to the residents they serve. Three awards and six honorable mentions will be presented at the first San Francisco Neighborhood Business Awards sponsored by Urban Solutions and The Examiner."

"Green Apple Books and Music, cherished for decades by San Francisco bibliophiles who regularly explore the nooks and crannies of the distinctive store, is receiving first place honors in the inaugural San Francisco Neighborhood Business Awards tonight."

Lottery attracts a host of would-be S.F. homeowners

From today's Chronicle, "To see just how unattainable San Francisco real estate has become, one needed only to visit SBC Park at 7:30 Wednesday morning. There, about 150 people -- out of 4,300 applicants -- showed up for a lottery for 20 new condos. The lure in this city-sponsored affordable housing program was the price. Luxury condos that normally fetch $500,000 to $1.3 million were being offered at $85,000 to $233,000 -- sums that in many other parts of the country would guarantee a sprawling Colonial or a spiffy brownstone but in the Bay Area barely buys a vacant lot in a far-off suburb."

And from today's Examiner, "David Sobel of the Redevelopment Agency said he has “never” seen so many people apply for so few homes, but pointed towards factors including the quality of the development, its desirable location and the shortage of affordable housing to explain the draw. Ninety percent of city residents cannot afford a median-priced home, which at more than $700,000 in San Francisco has increased 20 percent over the last year alone, Sobel said. In the next three to five years, there will be many more similar buying opportunities at locations throughout Mission Bay, the Western Addition and Bayview-Hunters Point, Sobel added."

Details about getting yourself into future lotteries can be found on the San Francisco Redevelopment Agency Web Site.

A list of currently available BMR (below market rate) units can be found on the Mayor's Office of Housing Web Site.

U.S. House Passes bill that allows for higher conforming loan limits

The U.S. House of Representatives voted this afternoon on H.R. 1461, Federal Housing Finance Reform Act of 2005. This legislation is intended to strengthen the regulations and oversight of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA, also known as the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSE).

Included in this legislation is the High-Cost Conforming Loan Limit provision. This provision will increase the conforming loan limit, currently $359,650, to the median home price of a Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) if the median home price of the MSA is above the national conforming loan limit. The new conforming loan limit for a high-cost MSA would be set at its median home price, but capped at 150% of the national conforming loan limit, or currently $539,475.

The amendment introduced by Representative Garrett from New Jersey would have stripped the high-cost conforming loan limit provision from H.R. 1461. The Amendment was handily defeated!

What this means for you, the homebuyer, is that since 'conforming' loans carry lower rates, your mortgage payments (on a newly originated loan) will be lower and many, many more people will be able to qualify for these loans. As you see above, that's a nearly $200k increase, which will provide many more opportunities for homebuyers.

Ackerman: More schools may need to close

From the Examiner today, "More schools would likely be closed at the end of this school year, according to Superintendent Arlene Ackerman, since another 800 students did not return to the district this year."

"Since the district receives government funding based on the number of students it serves, the district’s financial situation becomes more dire when it loses students."

"If the board uses the same criteria, it is likely that schools that escaped closure last year will once again be on the chopping block, including Cobb, Malcolm X and Starr King elementary schools, Treasure Island K-8, and Enola Maxwell Middle School, according to the district’s Chief of Policy and Planning Myong Leigh."

Record spending on commercial real estate expected

From the Chronicle, "Investors will pour a record $200 billion into commercial property in the United States this year, according to a survey presented Tuesday by a real estate services firm at an industry gathering in San Francisco."

"It's already been a banner year in San Francisco, the second-most-popular market for big investors after New York City, according to Cushman & Wakefield. More than $4 billion in commercial property sales have closed in the city in 2005."

Home Depot decision put off after hearing

From today's Chronicle, "Home Depot, the retailing giant that has been trying for the past decade to open a store in San Francisco, agreed late Tuesday to scale back the size of its proposed project in a last-ditch effort to win support at City Hall. The Atlanta-based company agreed to submit its revised blueprint to city planners within the next week, lopping 33,000 square feet off its planned 140,000-square-foot store."

And from another Chron article today, "The proposed site is located at 491 Bayshore Blvd., straddling the Bernal Heights and Bayview neighborhoods. Near U.S. Highway 101, the site also borders the supervisorial district of Tom Ammiano and Sophie Maxwell and the two supervisors have taken opposite sides on the issue."

Looks like the vote has been delayed one week, and with the reduced size, it appears that it will pass with a majority of the Supervisors next Tuesday. I really don't believe that the positive impact of 150 jobs will every come close to outweighing the damage that Home Depot will do to the community feel of San Francisco. Does anyone really care about driving an extra five minutes to Colma? Really?

"Rick Karp, president of Cole Hardware, which operates four stores in San Francisco, has his own take on jobs: Put Home Depot in town and his business and other small retailers will be forced to lay off their workers. "I ask you to consider the urban decay of our neighborhood commercial areas,'' he said to the supervisors."

The Examiner also has coverage of last night's extended meeting.

New Duct Sealing Regulations for Home Owners

As of October 1, installing or replacing certain heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment may trigger a requirement to test and, if necessary, properly seal the existing ducts connected to HVAC equipment. The duct sealing must then be independently verified by a certified home energy rater. If a building permit is required, the local building department may not issue a permit for installing HVAC equipment until the ducts are properly sealed as verified by a certified home energy rater. If a homeowner circumvents permit requirements by changing out HVAC equipment without the necessary duct sealing, the homeowner must disclose that fact to a prospective buyer on the Real Estate Transfer Disclosure Statement.

From the California Energy Commission's web site (PDF link):

Beginning October 1, 2005, you must have your home’s ducts tested for leaks when you have a central air conditioner or furnace installed or replaced. Ducts that leak 15 percent or more must be repaired to reduce the leaks. After your contractor tests and fixes the ducts, you choose whether to have an approved third-party field verifier check to make sure the duct testing and sealing was done properly or to have your house included in a random sample where one in seven duct systems are checked.

Duct sealing is not required in the following situations: 1) when homes are in specific coastal climates; 2) when systems have less than 40 feet of ductwork in unconditioned spaces like attics, garages, crawlspaces, basements or outside the building, or 3) when ducts are constructed, insulated or sealed with asbestos. There also are specific alternatives that allow high efficiency equipment and added duct insulation to be installed instead of fixing duct leaks.

You also should know that any contractor failing to obtain a required building permit and failing to test and repair your ducts is violating the law and exposing you to additional costs and liability. Real estate law requires you to disclose to potential buyers and appraisers whether or not you obtained required permits for work done on your house. If you do not obtain a permit, you may be required to bring your home into compliance with code requirements for that work and you may have to pay penalty permit fees and fines prior to selling your home.

In #1 above, it refers to 'specific coastal climates'... I have no idea what that means, but obviously leaves some ambiguity in the new law... Also, per #3, many of San Francisco's homes still have asbestos ducts, which would also exempt you from the new law. Check with your furnace installer before they get too far into a project... Many installers don't pull proper permits and that could affect your resale...

Daylight Savings Ends Sunday @ 2AM

This is only 'homes' related if you're planning on going out to look at properties on Sunday, but still a good bit of info nonetheless...

Don't forget that Daylight Savings Time ends this weekend and you'll need to remember to turn your clocks back one hour this Sunday morning at 2 AM.

Existing Home Sales Stay Strong

The Associated Press is reporting in this morning's Chronicle that existing home sales were second-highest on record in September.

"The National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes last month were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.28 million, the same as August. The Realtors said sales would have fallen without the increased demand for houses because of the devastation from Hurricane Katrina."

Wells Fargo says survey finds most pay principal on interest-only mortgages

From today's San Francisco Business Times, "Wells Fargo said Monday that a survey it commissioned found many Americans are paying against principal on their interest-only mortgages despite rising gas prices and sharp declines in consumer confidence."

What that means is that just because people have the OPTION of paying as little as possible on their mortgages, they're actually paying down their principal balances VOLUNTARILY. What a concept!

"The Wells Fargo Second Annual Survey of American Homeowners found that of the 8 percent of homeowners with interest-only real estate-secured accounts, 73 percent majority pay both the principal and interest at least some of the time. Of that 73 percent, 23 percent pay the principal in addition to interest all of the time while an additional 8 percent make principal payments as well as interest payments outside of the standard payment schedule. But one-fourth pay only the interest. These behaviors were consistent across both age and income."

"Respondents were asked about their reasons for choosing an account with an interest-only payment feature and the primary responses were to direct their funds into more profitable investments and to lower their monthly payments. Choosing this type of loan to be able to buy a more expensive home was not the most popular reason cited, according to Wells Fargo."

Newsom's Approval Rating up to 86%, Daly's at a not-surprisingly low 29%

Matier and Ross include a bit today about a recent poll on citywide approval ratings for elected officials today (scroll down linked page to article - or see entire segment below).

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom's gravity-defying poll numbers continue to soar, with the latest David Binder survey of 600 voters showing the gelled one scoring an 86 percent approval rating.

At the same time, Binder's poll found that the Board of Supervisors, which is often at odds with the mayor, has dropped a bit in voters' eyes -- scoring a 55 percent approval rating, compared with the 60 percent cheers the supes got back when they were butting heads with Mayor Willie Brown.

Unlike Brown, accusations of cronyism and "sweetheart deals'' such as those leveled by recently ousted Treasure Island boss Tony Hall seem to just roll off Newsom's back.

As political consultant John Whitehurst noted, "It's all about branding. Newsom's wonky, sincere but still hip image just seems to fit the town's image of itself."

Interesting note: Supervisor Chris Daly, Newsom's sharpest critic on the board, scored only a 29 percent citywide approval rating in the same poll.

And for you insiders, the poll also took a look at the upcoming assessor's race. The results:
Phil Ting: 26 percent.
Gerardo Sandoval: 17 percent.
Ronald Chun: 8 percent.

The rest of those surveyed went for other candidates or were undecided.

It's funny, Mr. Daly, that although MANY more than 29% of the city's residents are renters or those who you would consider your target constituents, you are still universally disliked by 71% of this city... Maybe there is hope for San Francisco after all...

Tenants Demand City Enforce Eviction Disclosure Law

Ahhh... The journalistic masterminds at BeyondChron are at it again! Today they cover yet another open house protest at 1160 Alabama Street.

"Through his and other activists' efforts during recent months to educate potential buyers, more than 90 percent of speculators have turned away, [Tenant's Union mob boss Ted] Gulickson said."

Are you freekin' kidding me?!? 90% of your dumb-ass friends and neighbors, perhaps, but certainly not 90% of the buying or selling population. Where the HELL do you get that figure? We have hit a new journalistic low today, my friends.

"In an effort to make eviction buyers more socially aware, tenant rights activists picketed a Tenancy in Common (TIC) open house yesterday at 1 p.m. Located in the heart of the Mission District, at 1160 Alabama St.., protestors asked potential buyers to turn away from a property being listed by BJ Droubi & Company where tenants recently had been evicted under the Ellis Act, a state law used primarily by speculators who intend to turn buildings into condominiums. Moreover, activists demanded that the realtors disclose the fact that all of the tenants had been evicted for the purpose of a TIC sale."

Yes. This vacancy disclosure is a law, and it is something that is followed closely by good real estate agents. It is required to be provided to buyers, and is normally provided in a disclosure package along with other statutory disclosures, prior to said buyer writing an offer to purchase the property.

Is Super-Ted, the savior of all things rented, going to ask us to have it delivered via police motorcade to each buyer, long before they even visit a property, just to confirm that everyone is made aware of each unit's status? Is it an agent's fault if a buyer chooses not to read a disclosure package as thoroughly as Ted would like them to?

The Ted and Chris (Daly) show continue to persuade tenants to vote for unlawful referenda, which are subsequently ruled ridiculous and unenforceable (McTIC or Peskin's Ellis Act amendment, for example). The more times they lose their poorly planned fights, the more 'creative' they must be to try to stop something that has an otherwise simple solution: BUILD MORE HOUSING!

The property mentioned above is a ~1000sqft flat with one car parking, listed for $499,000. We all know that you cannot buy this on the open condo market, so this is going to be an attractive purchase price for buyers. Had we built more housing to satisfy the needs of the average 1000sqft buyer, more of these buyers would have other options, and there wouldn't be such high demand for this type of property. This is not a 'family' property, this is not what the Guardian is bitching about when they say that we need more family housing. This is an apples for apples comparison with what's being built in Rincon Hill and SoBe (other than geographic location, of course).

The confusion about the supply and demand equation continues.

Bush Picks Bernanke As New Fed Chairman

The AP is reporting that President Bush has chosen his new Fed Chairman.

From SF Gate, "President Bush on Monday selected Ben Bernanke, chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, to replace Alan Greenspan as Fed chairman, according to an administration official."

"Bernanke, 51, is a former member of the Fed board. He also was a professor at Princeton University and chairman of the economics department. Bernanke and Greenspan differ on whether the Fed should set targets for inflation — Bernanke thinks it should, Greenspan does not — but otherwise they share a similar philosophy. In fact, while he was at the Fed, market observers would often look at Bernanke's speeches for insight into Greenspan's thinking."

The official announcement was made by Bush at 10AM PDT.

CBS Marketwatch also has an article on Bernanke and his likelihood of confirmation.

City, residents prepare for winter flooding

From the Examiner this morning, "With last February’s massive storm and the flooding it caused still fresh in many residents’ minds, The City has broken ground on a 5-year, $150 million project to prevent flooding in some of The City’s lowest lying areas, upgrade wastewater treatment plants and curb sewage odors lingering in the southeastern part of The City."

"Even with the projects, city neighborhoods won’t be immune to flooding, but SFPUC officials said the chances of a repeat of the Feb. 25, 2004 storm — which some officials called the biggest in The City in 100 years — will be less. Whipped by hurricane-force gusts, the storm drenched San Francisco, flooding 19th Avenue with four feet of water, causing parked cars to be whisked away on flood waters and leaving roughly 160,000 residents of Northern California without power."

"To prevent storm flooding this year, the SFPUC has stepped up storm drain and catch basin cleanings. The SFPUC will also give away free sandbags on Saturday and continue to issue “flood risk alert” warnings during the winter season as warranted."

Condos, offices drive Mid-Market ‘revitalization’

From today's Examiner, "The Federal Building, currently under construction, has received accolades for its eye-catching architecture and green design. Developers who just broke ground next door on a 22-story condo tower (to be called the SOMA Grand) hope their project will work in visual harmony with the federal government’s $144 million project at Seventh and Mission streets."

"Currently, the block doesn’t have much foot traffic. But when the Federal Building opens next summer, 1,200 employees will flood the area and another 500 residents will move in when the Soma Grand opens in two years."

"David Addington, owner of the Warfield Theater, said the huge expansion of the San Francisco Centre mall at Fifth and Market streets, to be finished next year, will boost the neighborhood."

Furniture shopping? Two big sample sales coming...

For those that know about them, they are the best times of the year to buy furniture. These are usually floor samples from the otherwise-off-limits-to-mortals design showrooms. Some of the stuff is high-end, some low-end, but all of it is at bargain prices.

The first one is next weekend (October 29/30) at the Galleria & Showplace Buildings. The sale runs from 9am-5pm on Saturday and 10am-4pm on Sunday. They claim 15 trade showrooms totally over 50,000 sqft selling floor samples to the public.

The following weekend is the San Francisco Mart's one-day sale on Saturday, November 5th from 9am-5pm. This is a multi-story building at the corner of 10th & Market, and has floor after floor of showrooms.

There are ads in this Sunday's Chronicle Datebook for both sales that are worth a buck off of the admission price, too.

9 of 10 California home buyers get free one-year warranties as part of the deal, but beware, often there are strings attached

As a real estate agent, I often buy home warranties for my buyers when they close escrow. They are a great way to get little nit-picky items handled without involving the seller or spending more than the $50 service fee.

But as the Chronicle points out today, they are not fix-all policies and they should be considered carefully.

"...for the relatively small sum of about $275, the average price of a basic warranty, sellers tack on a little extra incentive to buy their homes. Buyers, who may be feeling a bit anxious about slipping into the harness of a mortgage that stretches their monthly budget to the breaking point, take comfort in the thought that, should their heating system shut down in the middle of winter, they won't have to pay for it. Real estate agencies like them, too: The warranties reduce the possibility of litigation, which is why they were initially created."

"Home buyers shopping for a warranty can consult the CDI's Web site, www.insurance.ca.gov, which lists the track record of the 11 major companies selling home warranties in the state."

Many with children planning to leave city - Survey finds them upset with safety, housing, schools

From SF Gate today, "Nearly half the families in San Francisco with preschool children stated in a newly released survey their intent to move out of the city in the next three years, citing the lack of affordable housing, concern over public safety and the state of the public schools as their primary motivators."

"Among those who said they were most likely to leave in the next three years were African American families, and families with children under age 6."

Paying debt and hiking credit score

A reader of CBS Marketwatch writes in asking how best to pay off credit cards in order to improve their credit score.

The answer, "My credit-score guru, Ginny Ferguson of Heritage Valley Mortgage in Pleasanton, Calif., says that as long as you have the cash, "by all means" you should pay down the cards on which you are carrying balances. But don't pay them off completely. Rather, pay each one down to a balance of $100. However, if $100 is more than 30% of your available limit on any single card, then Ferguson says you should pay it off completely."

This is great advice. Having lots of credit is good, as long as your balances don't exceed 30% of available credit from any one source.

Demand Falling for TICs? I don't think so...

My favorite sensationalists at BeyondChron have an article hypothesizing that sales of TICs have fallen off. Funny thing is, they don't actually ask anyone who might understand the market for some hard data or anyone that could actually tell them what's going on. And no, Ted Gullicksen is not an expert on the real estate market. He's just a self-proclaimed expert in complaining about change.

"The number of unsold Tenancy in Commons (TICs) on the market has been steadily increasing over the past 6 months, precipitating what could be the beginning of the end for the TIC boom. The number of unsold TICs climbed from 104 to 270 between May and October, a trend that can likely be traced both to increased tenant activism highlighting the harmful affects of TIC evictions and the market for Bay Area housing slowly declining."

Ok... Let's look at the real estate market... Inventory has shot through the roof since Labor Day. All across the board. If they had done their homework, they'd see that there are more of every type of property on the market right now. Does this worry anyone? Not really. Does this have anything to do with their silly picketing and protest tactics? Not one bit.

“I think the number of unsold TICs indicates that buyers are getting reluctant about the risky form of TIC ownership at then time when the housing market may be peaking,” said Ted Gullicksen of the Tenants’ Union, which has led many of the protests against TICs. “Buyers are showing they’re unwilling to buy TICs where tenants have been evicted.”

Yeah, you tell 'em, Ted. You got this whole real estate thing figured out, don't you? The number of sales has decreased, not the prices of these sales. And it's due to the fact that there is so much for buyers to see right now, they're taking their time. This happens from time to time in real estate. Sometimes there is little inventory, sometimes there is a lot of inventory. If this trend continues for 12 months, we might see some 'change' in the market, but otherwise, everything is just fine in the world of San Francisco real estate.

Nice try, though, guys. Better luck with your sensationalism next time...

Bay Area apartment rents rise as job market heats up

From the Chronicle today, "A strengthening Bay Area job market helped push apartment rents and occupancy rates slightly higher in the third quarter, although renting is still a bargain compared with buying."

"Given that there's basically no new construction in the Bay Area, then probably that would indicate the market is at the balance point where landlords can increase rents without too much fear of leaving an equivalent amount of occupancy," said Chris Bates, RealFacts' marketing director.

Going back to yesterday's post about the slew of ranting articles in the Guardian, this only serves to point out the other side of the coin. If there's no new housing to buy, and there's not enough housing to rent, what's gonna happen? Prices will rise across the board, buying will become more attractive (vs. renting), and more people will end up being evicted.

Seems like cutting off the supply of new housing isn't such a great idea, now is it?

Not the priciest, and still the best!

The folks at SFist pointed out a CNNMoney article today about how SF is ranked number two among the most expensive cities in the nation for basic living/housing costs, behind Manhattan, of course.

"In Manhattan, that family would need to spend $146,060, 137.9 percent more than in the average American town. It topped runner-up San Francisco by more than $24,000 to earn the dubious distinction of being the nation's priciest town."

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Meanwhile, Conde Nast Traveler Magazine voted San Francisco the best city (probably from a tourist's standpoint) in the USA, and second in the world behind Sydney, Australia. I'm certain the Bay Guardian wasn't involved in this voting, nor was 'housing' on the list of available voting criteria.

From SF Gate's News Roundup today:

For the 13th straight year in a row, San Francisco has been voted the best city in the United States, according to a vote by nearly 30,000 readers of Conde Nast Traveler magazine.
San Francisco missed out on earning the title of best city worldwide, losing to Sydney, Australia by just two points.

Although the city has dominated the competition, winning best U.S. city 17 out of the 18 times, the contest has been held, city officials say it is always a pleasant surprise to be named No. 1.

"We never take it for granted," said Laurie Armstrong, vice president of the San Francisco's Convention and Visitors' Bureau.

Mark Theis, the bureau's vice president of conventions, accepted the award during a ceremony Monday night in the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York City.

According to the bureau, readers judge the cities based on such criteria as lodging, ambiance, shopping, and restaurants.

The city also won first place in the restaurant category, "which is so right," said Armstrong.

The results of the contest will be featured in the magazines' November issue.

Attack of the million-dollar condos?

The SF Bay Guardian has a food-for-thought, yet mostly lunatic-rant article on the state of housing in San Francisco.

And the writer sums it up by saying, "...there's a more dramatic step that ought at least to be considered: Why not enact a five-year ban on all new market-rate housing in San Francisco? Just stop the development, right now, until this city can sort out its priorities, plan for a sustainable future, and figure out what kind of a community the residents want to build."

YEAH! Let's do that! The housing market may or may not end up leveling off due to a multitude of factors, but let's artificially PUSH THE PRICES THROUGH THE ROOF by eliminating the already low number of new units (compared to what the city really needs) that are slated for construction.

Once again, the time to bitch and moan was back when Mission Bay was on the drawing board. The time is not now, after project after project has been approved. Why don't they turn their energy into keeping Home Depot out of the Bayshore, and let some housing be built. I just don't understand the complete lack of understanding of the most basic equation: supply and demand... Cutting off the supply does not solve the problem, and it never will.

The list of housing-related articles in this week's Guardian is long:

The fate of the eastern neighborhoods

Elevated suburbs

Dogpatch's balancing act

Outbound traffic

Train in vain

The Potrero record

And the only slightly-positive article in the bunch:

City-backed loans offer Third Street businesses a shot at survival.

Housing starts, permits surge in September

A client forwarded an article from USA Today this morning... Builders are still confident, bucking the anticipated trend of a slowing market.

My comment to him, however, is that plans for housing starts were put into play months ago and builders have to follow through by the time they hit the permit stage. Many of them have already pre-sold units, etc.

If anything, a slowing in homebuilding would shift the supply/demand equation.

Especially in San Francisco, the building is always ass-backwards. There are almost always huge projects coming online (available for sale) when the market is slower (in the fall, for example), or in times like post-9/11 or late 2002. Then by the time the market takes off, the buildings are sold out (at lower prices), leaving the inventory lower. This year would be an exception, of course, with many big South Beach projects selling out quickly in a hot market.

The real indication is the homebuyer. If they're buying and if there are homes to buy... That's what I'm interested in.

Right now the inventory is dramatically skewing the numbers, and when this data hits the papers next month, the media will have a field day. Houses are selling, but prices are holding steady and not as many homes will have sold. Should cause people to freak out even further, giving confident buyers good deals till after the first of the year. Once January 15th hits, there will be no inventory and a bunch of bonus-rich buyers.... Just like the last 10 years...

Of course, that's my $0.02.

Prices up, sales down - Median in Bay Area rises 19% over last September

The Chronicle today has an article that discusses yesterday's Dataquick report on recent sales. Kelly Zito smartly points out (unlike some bloggers and pundits yesterday afternoon) that SALES were down, but PRICES were up. This just means fewer houses sold in August and September. It doesn't mean prices were lower.

"A total of 11,205 houses and condos changed hands, a 7.2 percent decrease from August 2004 and the sixth month in a row that sales have fallen year over year."

August was a total boon for sellers with nearly zero inventory in San Francisco. That changed rather dramatically after Labor Day and has continued into early October. The new inventory flood has slowed, and that will likely be the trend moving into the holidays. The high inventory levels haven't really changed prices, it has just given buyers another week or so to look at a property before writing an offer.

"We've been expecting some kind of recalibration for a year, and that's just not happening -- at least not yet," DataQuick analyst John Karevoll said.

"Meanwhile, for the past 18 months, year-to-year price increases in the Bay Area have ranged between 16.5 percent and 20.5 percent."