Depending on who you ask, this is going to be the best week in 2006 for San Francisco Real Estate.
If you're a buyer, of course...
For some reason, agents and sellers have gotten it in their heads that dumping their inventory on the market the weekend after a holiday is the way to get the job done.
I say that buyers need to take note and get busy this week.
Why?
I track weekly trends from the MLS, and for this past week (compared to all other weeks in 2006), we see the following:
Greatest number of new listings in one week in 2006Largest inventory on a broker’s tour in 2006 (today)Fewest number of contingent properties in one week in 2006Fewest number of pending properties in one week in 2006Fewest number of sold properties in one week in 2006Overall, I'm also seeing:
New record high inventory for 2006New low for currently pending properties in 2006This is for single family homes, condos, TICs, lofts, and 2-4 unit buildings in districts 1-10 in San Francisco.
For those naysayers and bubble prophets, I'm still not worried about the market. But you'll also notice that I wasn't crazy enough to have any listings on this week. I did my business back in August. And did just fine. Sold two properties with multiple offers in only a couple of days.
We'll see that this week, too, but only for the cream of the crop.
And I'll be back with listings in 3-4 weeks after this chaos dies down.
And there are still LOTS of buyers out there. And they're willing to pay fair prices for good properties. But that's it. And this is the real estate version of 'fair' not the bubble-blogger version of 'fair'. It's also not the "my neighbor got $X, so I want $X + 15%" type of market. That won't fly, either. Smart sellers with good agents get exactly what they should. A good price for a properly marketed property in a short period of time.
So you can be a happy seller, you just have to do it properly, and LISTEN TO YOUR AGENT.
And as a buyer, don't wait too long this fall. The majority of our fall inventory has just hit. It will be all be piece-meal for the rest of the year with lower weekly numbers of new listings.
And for those that think this is just a continuation of perpetually rising inventory, that's not the case at all. Inventory has been dropping since just after Memorial Day with a one-week exception (that's right) the weekend after July 4th. Same goes for the number of properties on our broker's tour.
Difference is, through all of this, the number of sales has been steady. Which brings me back to what I said above. Buyers shouldn't take this as some sign that the sky is falling. This is called OPPORTUNITY.
So if you're a seller who has dug your heels in on an inflated price, and you've been on the market for 45 days, it's time for a dose of reality. The market is not going to be kind to you this month. Plus, you've got all of this competition to deal with.
My suggestion? Stop muddying the waters with your speculative sale. If you don't need to sell, don't sell. You won't get what you're asking for if you have been on the market for more than a week, anyhow.
The naysayers can try to pick me apart on a percentage point here and there, but I've been right all year long, no? Sales have been steady, prices are rising, and the market is just fine for the majority of buyers and sellers. And we have a much more balanced market, which is good for almost everyone.
There's nothing for me that says that any of my clients have anything to worry about. Even the ones who bought in 2005.
Perception & the media versus reality [SFHomeBlog]