FREE Concert Today at Yerba Buena Gardens and Recap of Last Night's Cut and Paste Competition

So can I just say again how much I love this city! Last night I attended the San Francisco leg of the 2007 International Cut and Paste competition at Yerba Buena Center in South of Market’s Yerba Buena Gardens. The creativity flowing in that room was a site to behold; and the crowd, who were incredibly polite I might add, ranged from early 20’s to mid 50’s so no - I wasn’t the oldest one in the room – for the record.

Adobe Sponsored Cut and Paste is an International Digital Design competition live and on four screens – think Poetry Slam or Iron Chef, but for Graphic Designers…

Grand Prize is the Creative Suite 3 a particularly spectacular piece of software I’m told that retails for over $3000 and is coveted by Graphic Designers and Videographers world wide. I watched an interesting demo on our very own San Francisco based DL.TV for one of the tools that seamlessly blends multiple shots into one panoramic shot, a highly secret piece of software that competitors are very busy trying to copy….

Here are a partial list of the parameters taken from Cut and Pastes web site
Rules
· All work must be completed in 15 minutes
· Competitors are provided with themes for each round one week in advance
· Competitors may bring in approved objects to capture with a digital camera
· All approved objects are available for anyone to use during any round
· No finished artwork, photographs, pre-made digital elements – all work must be constructed from scratch

The photo above was a design with the theme being Currency. (Have a field day with that one bubble bloggers...)


All the big design firms were out in force scanning for new talent, but for me it was just fun to watch and be a part of such explosive energy. This city is home to some wickedly creative people.

A bit of reference for those who may be new to the city or reading from afar Yerba Buena Center is located next to the Metreon in South of Market, and is an area that has turned into one of the many art Meccas this city has to offer. SF Moma is on the adjacent block, as is the W Hotel, the fairly new St. Regis Hotel – which has turned into a hot drinking spot for straight and gay singles and includes their residential condominiums which have a couple of resales up right now. Also The Four Season Hotel is on the opposite block facing Market Street which is home to my favorite gym in the world Sports Club, and was the first to start the full service Luxury hotel style craze currently sweeping a number of International destination cities. The Four Seasons currently has a one bedroom available as well, which is rare as there aren’t very many one bedrooms. Great building/location if you’re in that price point.

As for the stunning Yerba Buena Gardens I can highly recommend walking the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial as it’s a particularly serene place to meander through – handicap friendly no hills – so if your entertaining out of town relatives for the upcoming holidays and don’t have much in common it’s a great place to go as the place speaks for itself aka: no awkward silences with the inlaws.

****(Yerba Buena hosts a number of free events at any given time – Notice I love anything FREE ) – today at YB catch the Latin Jazz Festival from 1-3pm

All for now, gotta get ready for my real job - swindling all those unsuspecting buyers out of their hard earned money and into sub prime loans (ok, I'm not bitter I was called scum...he could have at least made it more romantic or creative and called me 'pond scum' and no I'm not linking to the final comment...find it on your own)

Desperate Sellers do Desperate things and the Agents that help them

Yesterday was our annual mandatory Broker Risk Management Seminar which always manages to scare the pjesus out of me. Thank god Bill Jansen is part comedian because the pickles agents find themselves in are anything but funny. Two of my favorite quotes from today's session were 'there are 1 million attorneys in the United States, 1 in 5 are in California', and 'first a person is unconsciously incompetent until they become consciously incompetent then you move up to being consciously competent until ultimately you arrive at Unconsciously Competent (kind of like driving a car).' I thought that pretty much sums up the various levels of real estate practitioners I meet out there on a daily basis.

Bill represents Brokers exclusively and works throughout California - accordingly he gets a broad view of what is happening throughout the state, and as the media has been accurately reporting, the picture isn't pretty for most of it.

What he is seeing is a replay of the real estate market from the early 1990's, with exceptions being the over $2m price range and San Francisco. I've only been practicing real estate for 13 years so I just hear the stories of writing contracts on the hoods of cars - that was back when the purchase contract was two pages, and buyer beware.

Bill was the one that first clued me in last year to the fact the FBI had set up a special task force, just for lender fraud in the Bay Area - almost a full year before the credit debacle broke in the mainstream media - so it came as no surprise when the proverbial shit finally hit the fan. I remember to the day I first heard a client tell me his mortgage broker was going to get him 100% financing; to which I adamantly replied his lender was smoking crack. Little did I know.

So what kind of cases are coming across Bill's desk now? Violations of the Home Equity Act, (pg 5 of PDF), agents being sued for practicing law by trying to write ill advised Lease Options to Purchase and fraudulent Seller financing including subject to first seconds the primary lender doesn't know about and wrap around loans.

My father when he used to do public speaking always used a quote I cannot credit as I have no idea where it originally came from but it seems appropriate today.

'A recession is where your neighbor loses his job, a depression is where you do.' Opine all you want about bubble or no, but the reality is a lot of people are being hurt and despite what some may state - good agents are not in solely to make a quick buck. Some of us treat it as a career and as such like to see stable, ethical, and practical principals applied.

Oh, and both notices of default and trustee sales in San Francisco are down over this time last year - notice the chart at the bottom of the article...

Bubble Blah, Blah, Blah... Bloggers

Yes, that's me quoted in Carolyn Said's article in the Chron this morning about Bubble Bloggers, and in particular, Patrick.net.

...many real estate agents are less enthusiastic.

"I laugh at bubble bloggers," said Matt Lanning, a Realtor with Zephyr Real Estate in San Francisco, whose sfhomeblog.com takes a considerably more upbeat view of the market. "I don't claim the world is always going to be stable, but there is no way the San Francisco market will collapse. It's a lot like the sensational journalism we're seeing with subprime mortgages which are far less of an issue than the media is making them out to be."

As for Killelea, Lanning said: "He has not been right about anything. Most of what he does is scour the Internet looking for anything to back up his position as someone who is forecasting the coming apocalypse of the real estate market." [more...]

I must add that in my interview with Ms. Said, I was very clear about my stance that Mr. Killelea has not been right about San Francisco. I don't claim to know or care about the 'fundamentals' that he speaks of for other markets, even within the Bay Area.

The basis for my comments are that there will always be people who have their opinions about something and fight their fight to continue to prove themselves correct. I won't exclude myself, or this blog, from that category.

And while the SF market is not what it was in the past few years, it is FAR, FAR, FAR from collapsed.

So, comment away, but remember, that I only ever refer to, or comment on, the San Francisco market. I really don't care what's happening anywhere else.

And would also like remind everyone that Mr. Killelea uses his site for profit... If he's not driving traffic through sensational, far-reaching commentary, he's not going to make any money (so he can continue renting).

Real estate blogger taps into bursting market bubble [SFGate]
Another 'bubble' blogger gives up [SFHomeBlog]
Have we finally seen a bubble burst... With the 'bubble' bloggers? [SFHomeBlog]

This Friday watch Betrayal on a $3 Million Dollar Screen

I recently had the honor of accompanying my good friend Gail Stark (Happy Birthday Gail!) - to opening night of the 2007-2008 Opera Season. David Gockley, the new general director of the second largest opera company in North America, is widely considered a breath of fresh air for a San Francisco institution that is actively going after a new generation of Opera Goers.

For Immediate Release January 11, 2006 "SAN FRANCISCO OPERA GENERAL DIRECTOR DAVID GOCKLEY UNVEILS NEW VISUAL IDENTITY FOR THE COMPANY SAN FRANCISCO— The San Francisco Opera today unveiled a new visual identity for the Company, heralding the beginning of a new era under the leadership of David Gockley, who became the Company’s sixth general director on January 1, 2006. Elements of San Francisco Opera’s new image include a new logo, a glamorous and sophisticated new look for the print materials, and a major redesign of the Company’s Web site.."

Having been an occasional patron myself, I am thrilled with the new look and feel for the Opera, designed by our very own 'internationally acclaimed' San Francisco based Pentagram Design who has long been a staple owner of the Tehama Lofts at 5th and Tehama. By all accounts there are one or two new lofts coming to market there soon, which is rare for a building that does not see much turnover and is a short walk to the recently opened Barneys in Union Square (scared to cross that threshold, I get in enough trouble with Nieman's).

Back to my point - this coming Friday you have the opportunity to check out the new look and feel of the Opera for yourself in a slightly less traditional venue, South Beach's AT&T park. Mr. Gockley, in an ongoing bid to promote Opera awareness, is simulcasting Friday's Samson and Delilah's performance onto our very own $3,000,000 High Definition screen - which lets face it has to be better than what's been showing this season based on the Giants record. I don’t even have the heart to link to those stats.

Back to something more heartening....AT&T park for those who haven't been, is a beautiful venue, with stellar views of the city. And one of the very few reasons this baseball season was bearable (that and watching history be made on the 7th of August – thanks Matt and Jay).

Tickets are FREE – did I mention FREE? My favorite kind, and as of today are still available. No idea on the seating set up…I’m assuming it’s general admission. The weather Friday night is supposed to be fine.

For tickets and more information go to http://www.sfopera.com/

PS: Gail I’m putting in writing my formal request for your front row Grant Tier Seats if you ever leave the bay area – Shotgun on your Seats!!!

TIC Owners - TONIGHT's the Night!

TONIGHT: Plan C SF TIC Homeownership Summit

Date: September 20, 2007
Time: 6:30 to 8:30pm
Location: St. Marys Cathedral Basement Level - 1111 Gough Street at Geary.

Free Parking!!

I know, you're fried - it's after work, and a meeting is the last thing you feel like going to, that happened to me just last night. But honestly the more people that show up, the more the city knows these issues matter to you. It's just how politics work - no comment on the antiwar demonstrations here - I'm talking local politics now... So grab a cup of coffee and turn out to see what happens.

From the PlanC web site:

Currently scheduled speakers: Assessor Phil Ting, Supervisor Sean Elsbernd, Sterling Bank, Bank of Marin, America California Bank and Circle Bank.

City Assessor Phil Ting will make an important announcement on TICs - come hear the announcement as it’s made! A panel of TIC lenders will discuss future trends in fractional TIC loans. And Supervisor Sean Elsbernd will lead a discussion of possibilities for condo conversion reform and pro-homeownership measures at City Hall.

If you own a TIC, want to be a homeowner some day, or just believe that homeowners are good for San Francisco’s neighborhoods, then we hope you’ll come to the Summit.

As Gordon* has so eloquently stated - 'it should be interesting' and there's no guarantee of the city doing anything so come let your voice be heard. Did we mention FREE PARKING?

*Gordon, who I've only met via email thus far, is on the Board of Plan C:
Encouraging home ownership via TICs is only a small part of what they do - so check em out!

The Fed Cut Rates - So What!?!

Wish I had time to find a video of the original Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory because it would fit the mood I'm seeing out there....and I would plug it in Right...

HERE

You know the one where they're on the boat right before they go through the tunnel and Gene Wilder looks like the crazy mad scientist who is going to kill them all? Yeah, that one.

So our mortgage interest rates wont do a thing until the bond market does it's thing, despite the move the Fed's made, (which I applaud wholeheartedly for the record). I can say their move took me by complete surprize, the amount that is, not that they cut.

However to look at how this affects my favorite person Jon Q. Public I would tell any little birds with the ears to hear that they should be planning ahead. And by planning ahead I mean any birds currently looking for a new nest, or just about to have the bank do the nasty on their old loan - they should be digging out their old files, dusting off the last two years of tax returns, W-2's, and investments and getting them nice and tidy to their mortgage broker so when the mortgage rates go down, if they do, they will be first in line to get a cup of that yummy new chocolate candy before it's all gone. Because believe me, no one likes to be the one stuck in line only to find out that their favorite movie just sold out. Better yet, plan ahead and have your ticket before you get there, and by plan ahead I mean make sure your lender has ALL of your information he needs and it's current. If/when rates dip, your broker (if they are good) are going to be mighty busy, and a little love will go a long way in expediting your process.

Also if you've gotten a loan in the past - be prepared to give them more paperwork along with your DNA because underwriting is getting tougher (which we also applaud, for the record).

I close today's rant with the immortal words of Willy Wonka himself.

"Oh, you should never, never doubt what nobody is sure about."

CNBC Powerlunch Road Shows hit Hyde St Pier Friday and the Trouble with Newspaper Headlines

My favorite CNBC news anchor Bill Griffeth, made an in person appearance taping his segment of Power Lunch from the Hyde Street Pier in San Francisco last Friday where he interviewed our very own Sam Zuckerman from the Chronicle.

In the first few minutes Bill queried Sam about Friday’s front page headline from the business section of the Chronicle; Bay Area home sales plunge to 15-year low. When asked by Bill if it was an indication that we are feeling the same chill from the credit crunch as the rest of the country, Mr. Zuckerman goes onto report that according to the real estate agents* ‘it’s a tale of two markets, the suburbs are hurting – go into the core of San Francisco and Marin and prices are up’.

Now I, as do many of my colleges in the business, have a big problem with the media coverage on real estate in San Francisco. My primary problem is that it is misleading. Notice the sentence where it states ‘A total of 7,299 houses and condos changed hands in the nine counties of the San Francisco Bay Area last month, down 25 percent from 9,713.’

Kelly Zito pulled her information for the article directly from Data Quick’s Site and it is factually correct, but when thin slicing a headline and scanning the print most people are left with the impression prices are flat or down in San Francisco. The reality is the paper is quoting numbers on 9 vastly different markets merged together. When one reads a sentence that declares sales in the San Francisco Bay Area are down, written by the San Francisco Chronicle, one is left with a very different impression than if it read closer to the truth which is the Santa Clara Bay Area is down by 25% (on virtue of the fact that Santa Clara county has the most transactions recorded and thereby sets the median).

To see how this affects Jon Q. Public I defer to a recent email plea from a fellow agent who was looking for recent multiple offer stories to give to her client who absolutely did not believe that properties were still selling in multiple offers. Which is true in District 9 (Soma etc) where for the time being there is plenty of inventory to choose from, but decidedly untrue for most decently priced Single Family Homes and condos where there is limited supply: aka most of the rest of the city.

How long will it take?

Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s great that everyone is getting on board to create a common frequency for first responders. I’ve taken Red Cross and Nert training and I think the world of the people who work as First Responders and risk their lives for others. But it boggles my mind that this didn’t happen years ago, and that the Bay Area will be the first in the Nation to achieve this...

From the SF Chronicle
Emergency communication system to link Bay Area cities

Dozens of Bay Area police, fire and transit agencies will be able to talk to each other on a single frequency during a disaster, making the region the first in the nation to coordinate all its emergency communications systems, officials promised Tuesday on the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
Working through a joint powers agency, the authorities will spend two years on a plan to replace the patchwork of radio frequencies or spectrum whose flaws were apparent during the 1991 East Bay hills fire and after the 1989 earthquake. During those disasters, as in the response to Sept. 11 and Hurricane Katrina, technology hindered so-called first responders from communicating with each other.

And so,

By 2009, officials said, Bay Area residents can rest assured that emergency crews will be able to talk with one another and respond where help is needed in major disasters such as fires, earthquakes and terrorist incidents.

2009 is a long time to wait. In the meantime, don’t just sit around, go out and get some training of your own:

San Francisco Red Cross
San Francisco NERT (Neighborhood Emergency Response Team)

Also:
Get Prepared

Buy Emergency Supply Kits and First Aid Kits

Jessica's Law Enforcement Begins

When Prop 83, known as Jessica’s Law, was passed last year, I wondered how they would enforce it. The law, requiring that paroled sex offenders not reside within 2,000 feet of a park or school, does not apply to previously registered offenders. Enforcement has begun with officers knocking on doors and giving notice of 45 days to more or risk going back to prison. And in San Francisco, there’s isn’t too many places for a paroled sex offender to go...

From the SF Chronicle:

New law puts most of S.F. off-limits to sex parolees
Phillip Matier/Andrew Ross

Finding a new home won't be easy for many of them, however. That's especially true for those living in a big city such as San Francisco, where it's nearly impossible to find a residence that isn't within 2,000 feet of a school or park.

According to the big laminated map drawn up by the police sex crimes unit at the San Francisco Hall of Justice, only two places in the city seem to meet the new 2,000-foot stay-away rule: the area around AT&T Park, where condos are going for $500,000 and up, and a narrow strip along Ocean Beach.

By the time state agents were done knocking on doors Friday, 46 parolees in San Francisco had been notified they must find new living quarters.

Calling ALL Tenancy in Common Owners

Thanks to one of my colleges, Derek Chin and his mortgage broker Gordon Friedman, for the heads up on the upcoming TIC summit on September 20, 2007.

According to Gordon, Phil Ting, the Assessor, will be announcing a plan to issue separate tax bills or at least separate tax statements to TIC owners which will be a very welcome, dare we say overdue, step for current and future TIC owners. Definitely worth attending to show support even if you aren't a current TIC owner. Tenancy in Common ownerships are one of the more affordable housing options in San Francisco and any sensible* move the city can do to help support housing affordability is welcomed by all. Check out the San Francisco Tenancy in Common Coalition http://www.sfticcoalition.com/ for more detailed information and make sure to spread the word!

Date: September 20, 2007
Time: 6:30 to 8:30pm
Location: St. Marys Cathedral Basement Level 1111 Gough Street at Geary.

Free Parking

Scheduled speakers: Supervisor Sean Elsbernd, Assessor Phil Ting, Sterling Bank, Bank of Marin, America California Bank, and Circle Bank.

* Don't get me started on the lunacy of the Below Market Rate housing programs and their everchanging rules...

Green Home Tour Coming Soon

Yes, there have been some interesting green projects lately, like the condos on 22nd Street by Lorax But while I wait for La Casa Verde (the new Sunset Idea House) at 25th and Alabama to open, I'm looking forward to the Green Homes Tour coming up September 23rd.

The tour offers a look inside 7 different homes, and even a bike route to follow to get to the homes. I think we have a long way to go to become more "green", but I like the opportunity to see what is currently being done. The tour could be considered the end note to the West Coast Green Conference And don't forget about the showhouse by Michelle Kaufmann which will be located in the Civic Center Plaza.

Art at the Dump

It's not everyday you get to go to an art show at the dump, but coming up in two weeks for two days only - Sept 21st & 22nd you will get the opportunity to do just that. If you've never been to SF dump, it's a trip well worth taking (and you can bring those latex paint cans you've been meaning to recycle for the past several years).

Located at 503 Tunnel Ave just opposite Monster Park -on a Friday evening (5-9 p.m.) and Saturday afternoon (1-5 p.m.). Directions for how to get there with or sans car can be found on Sunset Scavenger's web site along with tons of other handy 'I've been meaning to do that's!' http://www.sunsetscavenger.com/AIR/nextshow.htm.