The Front Steps Price Per Square Foot Debate revisited

I remember seeing a comment on the Front Steps - (great real estate blog too I must say), regarding a listing at 23 Belmont in which one commenter stated, per the tax records, that listing was a ridiculous price per square foot for the location.

Well, apparently the market did not think so because it recently closed (sale price is at the bottom fyi) for $300,000 over its ‘insane’ list price in 12 days on the market with 3 offers.

For what it’s worth I loved the unit and thought it was well priced. My only question was how much were my clients going to have to bid over to win it, and would it be well priced if they did win? These are questions that keep good agents up at night. (As it turns out my clients had to bid zero as they were out of town while the entire process started and finished).

Here’s my trouble with price per square foot totals – and to some extent people who rely solely on numbers to try to determine market value – it is only worth a third of what actual market values are, at least for residential, commercial is a different animal. In residential, where people are going to actually live, the emotional quotient is huge.

Alan Greenspan stated on his interview with Jon Stewart that forecasting hasn’t improved in the past 50 years…if he could figure a way to predict consumer confidence then he would have been way ahead of the curve.

That to me was brilliant because it’s what I’ve been watching for the past 14 years in real estate. If the market responded solely based on facts and numbers prices would never have increased – at least the way they did the past 7 years.

Not that a price per square foot totals should be ignored, simply that they should only be relied upon as part of a bigger picture that takes location, location within the building (if it's a condo) and rarity of whatever type of property you are bidding on (or selling) into account.

Another busy weekend... Armenian Food Festival and the Fiesta on the Hill!

This weekend is full of great events, so if you have time, here's a few I'd like to mention. As my company's weekly office meetings take place at St. John Armenian Apostolic Church,I’ve been looking forward to the 65th Armenian Food Festival! It’s open both Saturday the 20th from noon until midnight (dancing with live music starts at 9pm) and Sunday the 21st from noon till 4pm. There’s the food, children’s crafts, entertainment including the Karoun Dance Ensemble plus jewelry and crafts for sale. Did I mention the free admission and parking?

On Sunday, there’s the Fiesta on the Hill up on Cortland Avenue in Bernal Heights. It’s free and open to all, so October 21st from 11am to 6pm make your way up to Cortland Avenue between Bocana and Folsom and have fun. It’s a benefit for the Bernal Heights Neighborhood Center, an organization that provides many services to seniors, youth, housing services and some great community organizing.

The Fiesta (the last of the street fairs for the year, I think) features food, crafts, dancing in the street to live music including Sila and the Afrofunk Experience, Julio Bravo Y Su Orquestra Salsabor, Two Tall Drinks, the Bernal All Stars Brass Mafia , Judea Eden Band, Amy Meyers Band , Go Van Gogh and more!

There’s lots of kids entertainment too, activities, crafts and usually even a petting zoo.

If you're not familiar with the neighborhood, it's a great friendly way to get a little favor of the area. Or if you live nearby, come meet your neighbors...

More Facts Ma'am

137 properties sold in the two weeks from October 3rd through October 16th:

Single Family Home Sold = 60

34 ↑ over Asking
4 ↔ At Asking
22 ↓ Under Asking

Condominiums = 64

26↑
15↔
22↓

2-4 Unit Buildings = 9

2↑
3↔
4↓

Source SFAR Multiple Listing Service

But that doesn't really tell the entire story.

The questions you should be asking yourself, if you're a true market watcher is:

1. HOW much over and under are they going for?

In most cases not a lot under; or over - with several exceptions on the 'not much over' camp.

2. Where are properties selling the most under their asking prices?

For instance almost half of the SFH (that's Single Family Homes) that sold under their asking price - 10 to be exact - sold in District 10. More on Visitation Valley to follow in a later post which is a really cool 'affordable' neighborhood...caveat being affordable by SF standards, of course.

Finally there are also the few anomalies in the stats...3 of the properties that sold over their asking prices did so after they went through price reductions.

The rainy season has begun...

And it’s time for the 4th annual Sandbag Saturday. If you are a San Francisco resident and have a business or residence here in San Francisco, you can pick up free sandbags tomorrow Saturday October 20th from 11am- 1:00 pm. There will also be flood prevention information available. Bring proof of residency!

On October 20th, the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission and Department of Public Works will kick off the 4th annual “Sandbag Saturday” to raise flood prevention awareness and provide free sandbags to San Francisco residents. Introduced in 2004, “Sandbag Saturday” events have successfully distributed more than 6,000 sandbags. Sandbags can provide a useful barrier for diverting rain and street runoff away from homes and businesses in low-lying areas and below-grade properties.

Location:
DPW's Corporation Yard on 2323 Cesar Chavez Street
(enter from Marin Street at Kansas Street)

Date:
Saturday October 20th, 11:00 am - 1:00 pm

For more information call(415)554-3289.

Can't make it to the giveaway tomorrow? You can pick the sandbags up at other times.

Looking for information about the sewer system and the upgrades needed?
Read about the Master plan

Enough about bubble blogs...

Let's watch some films from around the world. San Francisco has no shortage of film festivals to enjoy:

It’s the 10th United Nations Film Festival with pre-festival screenings starting today and the festival running thru October 28th. If you are unfamiliar with this festival, read an excerpt from their website

UNAFF celebrates the power of films dealing with human rights,environmental survival, women’s issues, protection of refugees, homelessness,racism, disease control, universal education, war and peace. Documentaries oftenelicit a very personal, emotional response that encourages dialogue and action humanizing global and local problems. To further this goal, UNAFF hosts academics and filmmakers from around the world to discuss the topics in thefilms with the audience, groups and individuals who are often separated by geography, ethnicity and economic constraints.
Over three hundred sixty submissions from all over the world have been carefully reviewed for the tenth annual UNAFF. The jury has selected 32 films to be presented at this year’s festival. The documentaries selected showcase topics from Afghanistan, Bolivia,Canada, Chile, China, Croatia, Cuba, France, Haiti, Kenya, Kosovo, Iceland, India, Iran, Iraq, Ireland, Iran, Israel, Italy, Lesotho, Macedonia, Mongolia, Nigeria, Norway, Palestine, Peru, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Spain, Sudan, Uganda, the UK, Ukraine, the US, Vietnam and Zambia.

I’m looking forward to see Gypsy Caravan!

Also starting this week is the 11th annual Arab Film Festival
Running until October 28th, you’ll have a chance to see shorts and features that in the words of the festival:

The mission of the Arab Film Festival (AFF) is to enhance public understanding of Arab culture and to provide alternative representations of Arabs that contradict the stereotypical images frequently encountered in the American mass
media. The Arab Film Festival screens films from and about the Arab World that provide realistic perspectives on Arab people, culture, art, history and politics.

There's no shortage of interesting activities to do here in San Francisco... just not enough time for them all!

Battle of the Blogs Part Deux: Nightline ABC tonight

So even though they cut my section - editor's prerogative - we are fully endorsing checking out Nightline on ABC tonight as they are interviewing a certain housing bubble blogger vs Ken Rosen, a professor and chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate at the University of California at Berkeley, who said Killelea's math is wrong. "The advice not to buy a house is very bad advice."

Should be interesting.

Watch the story tonight on "Nightline" at 11:35 p.m. EDT (I would've given you a longer 'head's up' but I just fielded the call from the producer today at 3pm (and found out that my segment had been cut AND that it was airing tonight)... if you miss it - don't worry here's the link...

'Bubble Blogger' Takes on Housing Market

Of course we think it's a pity they don't have someone airing who is actually interacting with real live buyers; because despite what some may imply my buyers were neither born yesterday - nor are susceptible to being 'talked' into a huge investment just because I am enthusiastic about living in San Francisco.

Still, I was a little irritated as I sprung for a big hair/makeup session for nothing, (AND I've forewent my beloved Colbert Report, who recently hijacked Maureen Dowd's Column at the New York Times in the piece A Mock Columnist, Amok - laugh outloud funny if you haven't read it) to watch Nightline.

The good news is I got reacquainted with ABC who, to be perfectly honest, (which I usually am to the point of being blunt), I left for dead. I have to say I've learned a few things these past 10 days that I did not already know and they have proven to my critical eye to be great at reporting both sides fairly. I wonder if Patrick will agree...

Open Studios: see local art and meet the artists!

Open Studios is the best way to get inside artist’s studios and see their work. It’s a wonderful way to connect with the many talented, creative individuals we are lucky to live with here in San Francisco. It’s free to go inside the studios and there’s art work for sale. Go for the amazing experience, some inspiration, and sometimes, there’s free even wine and snacks!

Last weekend was the kick off events for Open Studios, but this weekend features studios located in the neighborhoods of Buena Vista, Diamond Heights, Fort Mason, Haight, Hayes Valley, Marina, Mount Davidson, Pacific Heights, Richmond, Sunset, Twin Peaks, West Portal.

Studios are open from 11am – 6 pm both Saturdays and Sundays. You can pick up the guide to the studios at a number of locations.

Next weekend, October 20th and 21st, features studios in Bernal Heights, Castro, Duboce, Eureka Valley, Glen Park, Mission, Noe Valley, Portola


October 27th & 28th features the studios in Financial District, North Beach, Potrero Hill, Russian Hill, SOMA, Tenderloin, Bayview, Excelsior

November 3rd and 4th features Hunters Point Shipyard studios.

Participate! Greening Divisadero and Traffic Study Update Meeting This Thursday, October 25th 7-9 pm

Join the Department of Public Works (DPW) and the Municipal Transit Authority (MTA) and the Mayor’s office of Economic and Workforce Development for an update on the improvement of the commercial area of Divisadero Street from Haight to Geary Streets.

The MTA has completed a traffic and transit study, and the DPW has secured some Federal Funding for greening and streetscaping. With construction scheduled to begin in 2009, don’t you want to understand and add your feedback to the project?

Not sure what "Greening Divisadero" would look like? The Greening Guerrero Project is moving forward, a block or two at a time. It's a great project with a lot of community participation and support.

So, come out and get involved:
Thursday, October 25th, 2007
7-9 pm
Ida B Wells High School Auditorium, 1099 Hayes Street @ Pierce Street

Want to Save The Planet?

This coming November 12th, San Francisco Parks Trust is hosting a Youth Gardening Conference:

Breaking Ground - Urban Gardening Youth Conference

Want to save the planet?

Start here.

Monday, November 12 (it's a holiday...we checked)
11AM - 3PM
CELLspace - 2050 Bryant Street
RSVP to Julia or call 750.5110
Hosted by Street Parks Youth

It's time to discuss the future - the future of San Francisco and your place in it.

Street Parks Youth is an action plan for San Francisco Youth that shows you how to start a garden and build the skills you'll need to save the planet.

Join us for free workshops and free lunch. Get inspired by meeting with local environmental leaders.

All SF high school students are welcome.

San Francisco Parks Trust - another easy to remember url (sfpt.org) - is one of San Francisco's truly beloved organizations. I recently attended the SFPT Fall Fundraiser under the stars at the Concourse in September - which was definitely a night to remember, (thanks Michelle for being a great wing girl) and well worth getting on their mailing list to attend next year as it usually sells out.

It's not a cheap ticket, but goes to a great cause and I must say the gift bag came in handy for my sister's recent birthday where we got discounted spa treatments at the new Burke's and Williams spa in the Westfield Shopping Center . If you need a great masseuse recommendation, ask for Jason or Shauna. I'm still looking for someone to gift the Peet's coffee to, being a tea drinker myself.

For a list of local gardens in your area check out:

The Community Gardens Program from the http://www.sfgov.org/ site.

Just the Facts, Ma'am

143 Properties Sold in the last two weeks in San Francisco

SFH Single Family Homes
38 sold Over Asking ↑
19 Sold Under Asking ↓
8 Sold At Asking↔

Condos
28 Sold ↑
21 Sold ↓
20 Sold ↔

2-4 Unit buildings
4 Sold ↑
4 Sold ↓
1 Sold ↔

Source: San Francisco Multiple Listing Service

Eat Pray Love, Mill Valley Film Festival and 158 Open Homes this weekend

You may have noticed that for the past several months every woman has had the skinny little book Eat Pray Love tucked under her arm, and is busy with her nose in the book, chuckling away to herself. I would quote one of my favorite lines but I can't get the damn thing back from my sister who has since gone on, unauthorized, to loan it out to several of her friends.

What does that have to do with you - you ask? Well...nothing maybe; but if you're a fan of the book Elizabeth Gilbert, the author, is going to be interviewed on Oprah this coming Friday and more importantly she's appearing live in conjunction with our own local novelist Anne Lamont of Travelling Mercies fame at the Marin Center.

Of course, the live appearance isn't happening until March of next year - but as you may have noticed, I like to plan ahead. Furthermore, I firmly believe not all seats are created equal at the Marin Center, particularly for an intimate speaking engagement like this, so the early bird will definitely catch the worm.

Basically boys, if you're listening and are looking for a REALLY easy Valentine's Day gift next year, you may score some big points with tickets to this - if you've even noticed she's read it. And if she hasn't, it's one of the funniest books I've read in a long time, and I would highly recommend it.

On a very sad musical note, we lost two pieces of history recently in the North Bay with both Sweetwater and Villiage Music Store closing their doors. For now, 19 Broadway in Fairfax is still alive and kicking, but they could probably use your support to make sure it stays that way.

Finally, the Mill Valley Film Festival is just about to get underway (with an easy to remember url for a change http://www.mvff.com/) and as of today only a few shows are currently sold out.

While we're in the midst of one of my favorite times of year in the Bay Area, the Indian summer, it should be a great weekend to meander through one of the many North Bay venues currently showing films as the weather has been very mild and pleasant. Although winters aren't too bad here either.

From the MVFF site, "The Festival isn't just about seeing great films, it's about immersing yourself in an environment with fellow film enthusiasts and celebrating the achievements of new and established filmmakers. Throughout the 11 days of the Festival, join us at our galas and parties, children’s festivities and Tribute receptions, where fine food, drink and film lovers are in abundance. Come to our live performances and seminars, where you can hear great music or join in a stimulating discussion about the craft of filmmaking. From start to finish, it’s a full schedule of fun and engaging activities designed to complement our diverse and extensive program of fabulous film."

Unfortunately, I'm going to miss seeing my choice pick, the Australian film Kenny due to previous tickets for the Shaolin Warriors at the Marin Center - I have a thing for martial arts; and Saturday's booked with the SF Bay Club's Pearl Gala at the DeYoung Museum but I've got my eye on one or two movies Sunday night if I have the energy. Sunday's are usually a big work day, and this one promises to be no different with 54 Single Family Homes, and 104 Condos currently on the open house schedule throughout San Francisco as of today.

If you're interested in staying abreast of the various events going on in and around the North Bay The Friends of Marin Center is a great organization. Check them out!

SF foreclosure activity DOWN

Yesterday's article on sfgate.com "Bay Area Foreclosure Activity Skyrockets" contains an interesting fact hidden in the article's by-county graph: though every other Bay Area county saw large, and sometimes huge (hundreds of percent), increases in Notices of Default and Notices of Trustee Sale in August, in San Francisco the activity in both are actually down from a year ago. SF Notices of Default are down 16% from 8/06 and Notices of Trustee Sale are down over 60%. The information is from RealtyTrac and I confirmed with the author that the SF stats were not a typo.

So, at least for the time being (or at least comparing 8/07 with 8/06), SF continues to buck national, state and Bay Area trends in foreclosure activity.

Patrick Carlisle
Director of Business Development

I'm not sure if I made my point or not, but for anyone following this blog, I buried this in the end of a long post a few days back and I doubt many saw it. Just like the Chronicle failed to point out in their article that foreclosures were actually down in SF over last year - see the post headlined 'Desperate Sellers' where I (unintentionally) buried the information at the bottom...you glance over things and think you know - but you just dont know enough to know you dont know...

Other things you may not know - we're still seeing multiple offers and offer dates on some properties in some areas of this city. What you probably do know, based on the media and other real estate blog sites, is that there are also price reductions. But if that's all you're being fed, and that's all you read, and you don't bother to look deeper - you might be misled into thinking that's the whole picture.

What's my point you may ask?

My point is that it's very, very dangerous to paint any picture with a broad brush and call it a Monet. My point is also that it's a short-sighted person that takes a postion and defends it despite sometimes overwhelming evidence to the contrary. (Not touching global politics here... my Republican friend and client calls me a Limosine Liberal - which is so true I had to laugh...)

And my point is decidedly NOT to say if you are a buyer now is a good time to BUY, nor if you are a seller now is a good time to SELL. I don't know whether now is a good time for you to buy or sell because it's case specific (and/or property specific) and there are factors that many people need to think about.

Nor is my point to say you can never lose money in real estate. I certainly have, and it hurt - a lot. I bought in 2000 broke up with the person I bought the house with and had to sell after Sept 11th...but you know I was able to absorb that loss (which totaled more than my earnings that year) because I had built a lot of equity into a small condo loft I bought in 1999 in a challenging neighborhood. I still own that property and am renting it out at cash flow neutral. It's locked in a 15 year fixed loan. And in 12 years it'll be paid off and I can walk to Yerba Buena Gardens in 5 minutes and my property taxes will be $350/mth + low HOA dues.

That means I dont have to hustle my clients because I've prepared for that rainy day. Hopefully the sun is shining for you real estate wise but if it isn't, pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and be thankful you have your health. Tomorrow is another day.

Oh, and my main point I suppose is that not all real estate agents are scum - but you know, you're never going to change some people's minds - so why bother?

THE MOST AMAZING show on earth is in San Jose right now

http://www.bodyworlds.com/ is in town - relatively speaking - now through the end of January at the Tech Museum of Innovation in San Jose.

I saw it in LA and have friends that have been multiple times, you never get bored, actually you need to see it more than once to really take it all in. Typically when it comes to a new city the attendance picks up as word spreads so the longer you leave it the more crowed it will become because it's beyond fascinating.

From the Web Site: The Institute for Plastination (IfP)
The IfP is a private research institute, located in Heidelberg, which focuses on the development and progression of Plastination. Plastination is the method of polymer impregnation, which preserves anatomical specimens as permanent, life-like, and aesthetic materials for instruction and scientific research. The specimens are dry, odorless, retain their natural surface structure, and remain accessible for virtually an unlimited amount of time. These characteristics lend to the specimens inestimable value both for training doctors and medical students as well as the general public about medicine and health.
The aim of the Institute for Plastination (IfP) is to produce human specimens and make them available both for basic and continuing medical training of doctors as well as for the general medical education of the public. The specimens are prepared solely for this purpose and only passed on directly to recognized educational and research establishments and scientific museums, but not to private individuals or outside suppliers.
In addition, the IfP coordinates the traveling BODY WORLDS exhibitions. Each BODY WORLDS exhibition displays approximately 200 authentic plastinated human specimens and 25 aesthetically posed whole-body plastinates. The exhibition is structured in such a way that visitors can experience it much as they would a three dimensional textbook: visitors are able to see exactly how their own bodies are constructed as they tour the exhibition. There are also specimens that show the effects of disease such as a heart attack or cancer. The anatomical specimens on display in the BODY WORLDS exhibition stem from our body donors who declared that their bodies should be made available after their deaths for the education of physicians and the instruction of laypersons.

My personal favorite is the one where they remove everything except the blood vessles - it's a stand alone version of a body shown just by the blood lines. What I can say is it makes it clear why men are ruled by their little man downstairs...who knew?

This exhibit is the real deal done by artists who pose their subjects doing everyday things so you can see what muscles come into play where. If you saw the other exhibit that came through SF a few years back at the Masonic Auditorium and think you've seen it, I assure you, you haven't. That exhibit was a sore dissapointment in comparison, done quickly just to make a buck I would say...sound familiar? Also they soley used Asian bodies so you miss how different the races are. It was also called into question whether those bodies were intending to be on display after death, (rumor had it they were prisoners that came from Beijing - but I cannot verify that) plus the bodies were leaking…which is just plain wrong, once you see the real deal it's clear the other exhibit was a hack job.

This is a MUST see for anyone remotely interesting in their own body...sad if you aren't you only have one - and I too was nervous about whether I could handle seeing dead bodies or not, but the fascination in everyone I witnessed kicked-in to override the potential fear/gross-out factor. Plus they really honor the donors who are helping everyone get a little more cozy with this thing we're all stuck with.

Well worth the drive bus or train ride out!

Word of warning avoid the holidays.